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FUREY: Terror attacks in Canada 'likely to continue,' internal CSIS report says

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shows little concern over the threat posed by battle-hardened jihadists returning to Canada. He even argues they can be rehabilitated. But documents unearthed from CSIS – some of them marked “top secret” – reveal alarming information about how Canada’s spy agency views the jihadist threat, what they’re doing to track it and their concerns about future attacks on home soil. Anthony Furey reports in Part 3 of this 3-part series.

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Canada’s top spies believe terrorism will continue in Canada, according to a threat assessment report from CSIS.

It notes that “domestic extremists are likely to continue to target Canadian uniformed personnel and related installations in neighbourhoods that are familiar to them (such as police stations and military recruitment centres).” Earlier words in the sentence that may offer further context have been redacted.

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The report was compiled by the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC), which  operates from within CSIS headquarters, in January 2017. It was obtained via access to information and provided to the Sun. The document looks at the ways terrorists, particularly homegrown ones, may attack Canada in the future.

The two terror attacks in October, 2014 – one in Quebec and one on the Ottawa Parliament buildings – resulted in the deaths of two Canadian Forces members. The Edmonton vehicular ramming and stabbing attack that occurred last September was against a police constable.

But according to ITAC, these attempts may not be behind us. The document marked ‘secret’ notes that groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda “continue to pose a persistent threat to Canada and Canadian interests globally” and adds that “of further concern is the ongoing threat from extremists in Canada who continue to aspire or plot violent acts of terror.”

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It’s unclear if ITAC is referring to known specific extremists or if they are speaking hypothetically. CSIS and the Canadian government officially state that there are around 60 terrorists who have returned to Canada from fighting abroad.

However part one of this feature reported on an internal CSIS document that stated those numbers “fluctuate constantly”. And part two of this feature disclosed how the CSIS assessments branch was at one point producing weekly reports on the numbers of terrorists who are still abroad and the number who have returned to Canada. While the actual numbers were redacted, security experts told the Sun this suggests there are changes occurring frequently enough to warrant writing weekly reports.

The game is also changing, making matters more complex. According to the report, “ITAC notes an ongoing shift in DAESH (an alternate acronym for ISIS) rhetoric since the last iteration of the (National Terrorism Threat Levels), which has intensified the call in supporters and followers to instead join the ‘virtual caliphate’ by remaining in the West and carrying out domestic attacks on behalf of DAESH.

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“Guidance on plotting and conducting a lone-actor attack goes as far as to provide systematic steps to reduce the chances of detection by security agencies such as employing ComSec [communications security] measures and dressing in the style of a Westerner).”

The report reveals Canada’s spies were also nervous about Canada 150 celebrations. Writing in advance of the sesquicentennial celebrations, they note that such events “remain attractive targets for groups to amass large casualties in a very short period of time, and with relative ease.”

One specific potential attack they warn about that would involve Canadians isn’t actually on Canadian soil. Citing an October 2016 pro-jihad book, they state it “recommends an explosive laden-sea vessel, driven by suicide bombers, against targets including the Suez canal where Canadian flagged vessels are likely to port.” Over the past several years, ISIS leaders have repeatedly named Canada in their roll call of countries to attack.

The silver-lining is that ITAC does not predict large scale and complex attacks in Canada. They note that “while domestic extremists may seek to conduct a copycat attack such as [Aaron] Driver’s suicide-IED attempt, the primary terror-related threat to Canada is single firearm, or a vehicle.”

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The language in this report – which is not publicly posted on the ITAC website – contrasts with the more sanitized language used in the Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada. The latter is something of a public version of the ITAC document, released annually by the Minister for Public Safety.

While Minister Ralph Goodale, in the foreword, notes that the report “takes a clear-eyed view of the dangers to Canada posed by terrorism” none of the blunt observations in the ITAC report make their way into the public one.

For the most part, the public text – which was released just before Christmas last year – looks back on Canada’s past challenges instead of discussing the likelihood of future threats.

“As the threat from terrorism continues to evolve, Canada’s response must continually adapt and change to keep Canadians safe,” notes the executive summary. “The Government’s role is to respond to a terrorist threat or incident through a coordinated effort by multiple federal departments and agencies, and all levels of government.”

The public version also echoes the approaches to deradicalization and rehabilitation favoured by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “A key approach to countering radicalization to violence in Canada is establishing programming within communities,” the report notes, going on to detail various counter-radicalization endeavours.

There is no mention of any such programs in the ITAC report.

afurey@postmedia.com

Twitter: @anthonyfurey

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